肝细胞癌（HCC）的治疗取决于早期诊断，这样才能成功应用“治愈疗法”。然而，“治愈”这个术语很难量化。我们的目标是通过开发统计模型来预测消融治疗后的治愈率，并使用这种分析来比较各种“治愈”疗法的真实治愈潜力，以补充我们以前的工作。我们访问了5个中心的1571名HCC患者的数据，接受了射频（RFA）或微波（MWA）消融治疗，并使用灵活的参数建模来确定治愈比例。然后将这个分析的结果与我们以前的估计相结合，提供一个简单的计算器适用于接受潜在治愈疗法的所有患者。治愈比例为18.3%，在肝功能良好和肿瘤非常小的患者中上升到约40%。消融治疗的HCC的治愈率为20%至30%，与切除可达到的治愈率相似，但远不及移植，其类似数字为>70%。我们提供了一个“计算器”，让临床医生可以根据可获得的临床特征估计任何个体患者的治愈机会。 版权所有©2023。作者。

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies.We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies.The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours.Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a 'calculator' that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features.© 2023. The Author(s).