四种胸部死亡率评分的比较研究。
A comparative study of four thoracic mortality scores.
发表日期:2023 Mar 02
作者:
Georg Schlachtenberger, Fabian Doerr, Hruy Menghesha, Andres Amorin, Christopher Gaisendrees, Sebastian Miesen, Christian Seibel, Thorsten Wahlers, Khosro Hekmat, Matthias B Heldwein
来源:
HEART & LUNG
摘要:
由于筛查项目的改善,非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)初诊时处于手术切除阶段的患者比例有所提高,因此风险预测模型变得更加重要。在这里,我们验证并比较了四个已经建立的评分模型(Thoracoscore、Epithor、Eurloung 2和简化的Eurolung 2(2b)),以评估它们预测30天死亡率的能力。包括所有接受解剖性肺切除的连续患者。我们使用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合度检验(校准)和受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线,判别)来评估这四个评分系统的表现。我们通过DeLong的方法比较ROC曲线下的面积(AUC)。
在2012年至2018年间,我们的医疗机构共有624名NSCLC患者接受了手术治疗,其中30天死亡率为2.2%(14名患者)。Eurolung 2和简化的Eurolung 2的AUC值(0.82)大于其他评分系统(Epithor为0.71,Thoracoscore为0.65)。另外,DeLong分析显示Eurolung 2和简化的Eurolung 2相较于Thoracoscore具有显著的优势(p = 0.04),与Epithor相比没有显著差异。
相对于Thoracoscore和Epithor,Eurolung 2和简化的Eurolung 2是预测30天死亡率的首选评分系统。因此,我们建议在术前使用Eurolung 2或简化的Eurolung 2进行风险分层。
The percentage of patients in resectable stages at initial diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) raises due to better screening programs. Therefore, risk prediction models are becoming more critical. Here, we validated and compared four established scoring models, the Thoracoscore, Epithor, Eurloung 2, and the simplified Eurolung 2 (2b), in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.All consecutive patients undergoing anatomical pulmonary resection were included. The performance of the four scoring systems was assessed with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (calibration) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (discrimination). We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curves by DeLong's method.A total of 624 patients underwent surgery for NSCLC at our institution between 2012 and 2018 30-day mortality was 2.2% (14 patients). The AUC for Eurolung 2 and the simplified Eurolung 2 (0.82) were greater than those of the other scoring systems, Epithor (0.71) and Thoracoscore (0.65). In addition, the DeLong analysis showed a significant superiority of Eurolung 2 and Eurolung 2b over the Thoracoscore (p = 0.04); there were no significant differences compared to Epithor.Eurolung 2 and the simplified Eurolung 2 were the favorable scoring systems for predicting 30-day mortality compared to Thoracoscore and Epithor. Therefore, we recommend using Eurolung 2 or the simplified Eurolung 2 for preoperative risk stratification.