研究动态
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气旋的健康效应:流行病学研究的系统综述和荟萃分析。

Health Effects of Cyclones: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Studies.

发表日期:2023 Aug
作者: Wenzhong Huang, Yuan Gao, Rongbin Xu, Zhengyu Yang, Pei Yu, Tingting Ye, Elizabeth A Ritchie, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo
来源: ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES

摘要:

由于气候变化,未来预计会出现更强烈的气旋。迫切需要一份全面的综述来总结和更新有关气旋对健康影响的证据。我们旨在提供一份系统综述和荟萃分析,以获得有关与气旋暴露相关的所有报告的健康结果的当前证据风险,并确定研究空白,并提出进一步研究的建议。我们系统检索了五个电子数据库(MEDLINE,Embase,PubMed,Scopus和Web of Science),以获取2022年12月21日之前发表的英文相关研究。根据首选报告条目的系统综述和荟萃分析(PRISMA)指南,我们制定了纳入标准,筛选了文献,并纳入了与气旋暴露相关的任何死亡或发病率相关结果的流行病学研究。我们提取了这些研究的关键数据,并评估了研究质量,并应用荟萃分析对可比较的研究进行了整体效应估计和异质性分析。 总共包括来自八个国家(美国、中国、印度、日本、菲律宾、韩国、澳大利亚、巴西)的71项研究在内,其中大部分来自美国。这些研究调查了总因和因特定疾病导致的死亡,以及与受伤、心血管疾病(CVDs)、呼吸道疾病、传染病、精神障碍、不良出生结果、癌症、糖尿病和其他结果(如自杀率、性别暴力)相关的发病率。研究大多仅纳入了一次高振幅的气旋(萨菲尔-辛普森等级为4或5的气旋,即卡特里娜飓风或桑迪飓风),并集中于与精神障碍发病率和总死亡率、住院率相关的研究。与气旋相关的总体精神健康发病率、创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)以及总死亡率或住院率的风险普遍升高。然而,对于其他结果的结果通常是混合或有限的。在气旋暴露后,总体相对风险1.09(95%置信区间[CI]:1.04, 1.13)、1.18(95% CI: 1.12, 1.25)、1.15(95% CI:1.13,1.18)和1.26(95% CI: 1.05, 1.50)分别观察到了与总死亡率、总住院率、呼吸系统疾病和慢性阻塞性肺疾病住院率相关的统计学显著相对风险,而糖尿病死亡率、心脏病死亡率和早产风险没有观察到统计学显著的风险。观察到高异质性研究之间的差异。 通常存在一致的证据证明,高振幅的气旋可能会显着增加精神障碍的风险,尤其是PTSD,以及死亡和住院率的风险,但对于其他健康结果(如慢性疾病,如CVDs、癌症、糖尿病)和不良出生结果的证据仍然有限或不一致。未来需要进行更多的研究,特别是针对收入较低和中等的小型气旋易发国家或地区,以进行严密的暴露评估、更大的空间和时间尺度以及使用先进建模策略的研究。
More intense cyclones are expected in the future as a result of climate change. A comprehensive review is urgently needed to summarize and update the evidence on the health effects of cyclones.We aimed to provide a systematic review with meta-analysis of current evidence on the risks of all reported health outcomes related to cyclones and to identify research gaps and make recommendations for further research.We systematically searched five electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) for relevant studies in English published before 21 December 2022. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, we developed inclusion criteria, screened the literature, and included epidemiological studies with a quantitative risk assessment of any mortality or morbidity-related outcomes associated with cyclone exposures. We extracted key data and assessed study quality for these studies and applied meta-analyses to quantify the overall effect estimate and the heterogeneity of comparable studies.In total, 71 studies from eight countries (the United States, China, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, Brazil), mostly the United States, were included in the review. These studies investigated the all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as morbidity related to injury, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, mental disorders, adverse birth outcomes, cancer, diabetes, and other outcomes (e.g., suicide rates, gender-based violence). Studies mostly included only one high-amplitude cyclone (cyclones with a Saffir-Simpson category of 4 or 5, i.e., Hurricanes Katrina or Sandy) and focused on mental disorders morbidity and all-cause mortality and hospitalizations. Consistently elevated risks of overall mental health morbidity, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), as well as all-cause mortality or hospitalizations, were found to be associated with cyclones. However, the results for other outcomes were generally mixed or limited. A statistically significant overall relative risk of 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.13], 1.18 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.25), 1.15 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.18), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.50) was observed for all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations, respiratory disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations, respectively, after cyclone exposures, whereas no statistically significant risks were identified for diabetes mortality, heart disease mortality, and preterm birth. High between-study heterogeneity was observed.There is generally consistent evidence supporting the notion that high-amplitude cyclones could significantly increase risks of mental disorders, especially for PTSD, as well as mortality and hospitalizations, but the evidence for other health outcomes, such as chronic diseases (e.g., CVDs, cancer, diabetes), and adverse birth outcomes remains limited or inconsistent. More studies with rigorous exposure assessment, of larger spatial and temporal scales, and using advanced modeling strategy are warranted in the future, especially for those small cyclone-prone countries or regions with low and middle incomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12158.