吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖是中国癌症负担的主要致癌因素。我们旨在量化中国与吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖相关的癌症负担，并估计在不同情景下癌症预防干预的潜在效果。我们采用了一种称为预防模型的宏观模拟方法，以在未来30年研究期间（2021-2050年）估计不同情景下中国成年人吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖流行率降低的潜在癌症病例数和比例。癌症发病率预测基于三种情景：消除、雄心勃勃目标（介于消除和可管理目标之间）和可管理目标（国家政策或全球行动计划）。危险因素的患病率数据来源于中国慢性病和危险因素监测，而癌症发病数据则来自中国癌症登记年度报告。相对风险来源于多个最近的大规模研究或高质量的荟萃分析。人口数据来源于《中国人口与就业统计年鉴》，《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《世界人口展望》。 不同情景下可避免的癌症负担估计结果各不相同。在理论上的最大干预情景中，吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖的流行率将被消除，估计在2021-2050年期间，吸烟相关癌症病例中有9.17%（男性：13.50%，女性：1.47%）是可避免的，饮酒相关癌症病例中有7.06%（男性：11.49%，女性：1.00%）是可避免的，超重/肥胖相关癌症病例中有8.22%（男性：7.91%，女性：8.52%）是可避免的。其他情景中，适度降低吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖暴露率的目标也与未来癌症负担的大幅减少相关。 我们的结果表明，通过降低吸烟、饮酒和超重/肥胖的流行率，中国成年人可以避免大量未来癌症病例。中国国家科技基础资源调查计划和深圳市三明医学计划支持本研究。© 2023 作者。

Smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity are key cancer risk factors contributing to the cancer burden in China. We aimed to quantify the cancer burden in China associated with smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity, and estimate the potential effect for cancer prevention interventions under different scenarios.We used a macro-simulation approach called Prevent Model to estimate for a 30-year study period (2021-2050) numbers and proportions of future avoidable cancer cases under different scenarios of reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity in Chinese adults. Cancer incidence was predicted under three scenarios: elimination, ambitious target (between elimination and manageable target) and manageable target (from national policy or global action plan). Risk factor prevalence was obtained from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, and cancer incidence data were derived from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. Relative risks were obtained from several recent large-scale studies or high-quality meta-analysis. Population data were extracted from the China Population & Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Health Statistical Yearbook and World Population Prospects.Estimates of the avoidable cancer burden varied with different scenarios. In the theoretical maximum intervention scenario, where the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity would be eliminated, 9.17% (males: 13.50%; females: 1.47%) of smoking-related cancer cases, 7.06% (males: 11.49%; females: 1.00%) of cancer cases related to alcohol consumption and 8.22% (males: 7.91%; females: 8.52%) of overweight/obesity-related cancer cases were estimated to be avoidable during 2021-2050. Other scenarios, with more moderate goals in the exposure prevalence of smoking, alcohol use and overweight/obesity were also found to be associated with substantial reductions in the future cancer burden.Our results suggested that a substantial number of future cancer cases could be avoided in Chinese adults by reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity.National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China; Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.© 2023 The Author(s).