手术机会缺乏和术后肿瘤复发对于肝细胞癌（HCC）患者及外科医生来说是一种挑战。本研究旨在开发用于预测转换性肝切除术后复发风险和复发无病生存率（RFS）概率的评分表，以供之前接受经动脉介入治疗的患者使用。共纳入了261名之前接受经动脉介入治疗的HCC患者进行了转换性肝切除术的回顾性研究。我们开发了预测复发风险和RFS的评分表，并通过C统计量、校准图和受试者工作特征曲线（AUROC）评估了其判别能力和校准性。单因素/多因素 logistic 回归和Cox回归分析被用来鉴定复发风险和RFS的预测因素。以下因素被选为复发的预测因素：年龄、肿瘤数目、微血管侵犯（MVI）分级、术前甲胎蛋白（AFP）、术前19-9脲类物（CA19-9）和东南亚肺癌研究集团（ECOG PS）的表现评分。类似地，年龄、肿瘤数目、术后AFP、术后维生素K缺乏或拮抗物诱导的蛋白（PIVKA-II）和ECOG PS被纳入用于预测RFS的因素。评分表的判别能力和校准性显示良好的预测能力。校准图显示评分表在预测复发和RFS方面与实际观测结果具有良好的一致性。我们开发了一对可靠的评分表，用于预测之前接受经动脉介入治疗的患者进行转换性切除术后的复发和RFS情况。这些预测模型可以作为临床医生在制定治疗策略方面的参考。© 2023年。BioMed Central有限公司，隶属于Springer Nature出版集团。

Lack of opportunity for radical surgery and postoperative tumor recurrence are challenges for surgeons and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study aimed to develop nomograms to predict recurrence risk and recurrence-free survival (RFS) probability after conversion hepatectomy for patients previously receiving transarterial interventional therapy.In total, 261 HCC patients who underwent conversion liver resection and previously received transarterial interventional therapy were retrospectively enrolled. Nomograms to predict recurrence risk and RFS were developed, with discriminative ability and calibration evaluated by C-statistics, calibration plots, and the Area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUROC) curves.Univariate/multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors for recurrence risk and RFS, respectively. The following factors were selected as predictive of recurrence: age, tumor number, microvascular invasion (MVI) grade, preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score (ECOG PS). Similarly, age, tumor number, postoperative AFP, postoperative protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), and ECOG PS were incorporated for the prediction of RFS. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability. Calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions of recurrence and RFS and the actual observations.A pair of reliable nomograms was developed to predict recurrence and RFS in HCC patients after conversion resection who previously received transarterial interventional therapy. These predictive models can be used as guidance for clinicians to help with treatment strategies.© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.