1990年至2019年的全球和地区老年人群中癌症的发生情况。
The occurence of cancer in ageing populations at global and regional levels, 1990 to 2019.
发表日期:2023 Sep 01
作者:
Wen Ju, Rongshou Zheng, Shaoming Wang, Siwei Zhang, Hongmei Zeng, Ru Chen, Kexin Sun, Li Li, Wenqiang Wei
来源:
AGE AND AGEING
摘要:
人口老龄化导致癌症病例和死亡增加,并对全球医疗系统产生深远影响。我们估计了全球和区域老龄化人口中癌症病例和死亡的趋势。使用2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据, 我们通过分解分析,分析了1990年至2019年期间,癌症病例和死亡的变化与人口老龄化、人口增长和流行病因素的关系。此外,我们估计了65岁及以上人口占总病例和死亡的比例,并使用皮尔逊相关系数研究了比例与社会人口指数(SDI)之间的关系。从1990年至2019年,综合各种癌症病例增加了128.9%,综合死亡增加了74.8%;65岁以上人口的比例从48.6%增加到56.4%(病例)和52.0%增加到61.9%(死亡)。人口老龄化对全球癌症发病贡献最大,癌症病例贡献了56.5%,死亡贡献了63.3%。然而,流行病因素对癌症病例的变化为5.2%,对癌症死亡的变化为-33.4%。老年人口的总病例和死亡比例与国家的社会经济发展呈正相关。我们的研究发现,导致癌症病例和死亡增加的主要原因已从全面流行病因素转变为人口结构变化。为了应对老龄人口中癌症发病率的迅速增长,全球卫生优先事项应专注于满足老年人的癌症诊断、治疗和护理服务的不断增长的需求。© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
population ageing contributes to increased cancer cases and deaths and has profound implications for global healthcare systems. We estimated the trends of cancer cases and deaths in ageing populations at global and regional levels.using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the change in cancer cases and deaths associated with population ageing, population growth and epidemiological factors from 1990 to 2019 using decomposition analysis. Additionally, we estimated the proportions of people aged 65 years and over accounting for total cases and deaths, and investigated relationships between the proportions and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) using the Pearson correlation coefficient.from 1990 to 2019, there was an increase of 128.9% for total cases and 74.8% for total deaths in all cancers combined; the percentages of older people increased from 48.6% to 56.4% for cases and from 52.0% to 61.9% for deaths. Population ageing contributed to the largest increase in global cancer occurrence, with 56.5% for cases and 63.3% for deaths. However, the changes attributed to epidemiological factors was 5.2% for cancer cases and -33.4% for cancer deaths. The proportions of total cases and deaths of older adults were positively correlated with socioeconomic development of the country.our findings revealed that the main contributor to increased cancer cases and deaths has changed from comprehensive epidemiological factors to demographic shifts. To respond to the rapidly growing occurrence of cancer in ageing populations, the global health priority should focus on meeting the rising demand for cancer diagnosis, treatment and care services for older people.© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.