在一个单一的高产量中心开发了一个条件生存概率图，用于预测经新辅助化学放射治疗和食管切除术后食管癌患者的5年总体生存率。本研究的目的是在另一个高产量中心的食管腺癌或鳞癌患者队列中外部验证该概率图。从一个事先维护的机构数据库中选择了2004年至2016年期间接受术前化学放射治疗后进行食管切除术的连续食管腺癌或鳞癌患者。通过Harrell的C统计量衡量预测5年总体生存率的判别力。通过绘制预测的5年生存率和观察到的5年生存率进行可视化来验证条件生存概率图的校准性。在对296名患者进行检查后，手术后直接的5年总体生存概率为45%，随着每增加一年的生存，这个概率增加到51%，68%，78%和89%。预测的5年总体生存率与观察到的生存率不同，直接手术后的校准斜率为0.54，0.55，0.59，0.73和1.09，而手术后1年、2年、3年和4年的生存率分别为1、2、3和4年。该概率图对5年生存的判别水平为中度，C统计量为0.65，与原研究中报告的0.70相比。该概率图模型具有中等预测判别力和准确性，支持其在外部队列中预测条件生存的适用性。进一步的验证研究应该以经验性评估该模型的预测性能。 版权所有©2023年作者。由Elsevier Inc.出版。保留所有权利。

A conditional survival nomogram was developed at a single high-volume center to predict 5-year overall survival for esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate the nomogram in a cohort of patients with esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma from another high-volume center.Consecutive patients with an esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma who had undergone esophagectomy after being treated with preoperative chemoradiation between 2004 and 2016 were selected from a prospectively maintained institutional database. The level of discrimination for prediction of 5-year overall survival was quantified by Harrell's C statistic. Calibration of the conditional survival nomogram was visualized by plotting predicted 5-year survival and observed 5-year survival for comparison.Of the 296 patients examined, the probability of 5-year overall survival directly after surgery was 45% and increased to 51%, 68%, 78%, and 89% for each additional year survived. The predicted 5-year overall survival differed from the observed survival, with a calibration slope of 0.54, 0.55, 0.59, 0.73, and 1.09 directly after surgery and 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival after surgery, respectively. The nomogram's discrimination level for 5-year survival was moderate, with a C statistic of 0.65 compared to the 0.70 reported in the original study.The nomogram model has moderate predictive discrimination and accuracy, supporting its applicability to external cohorts to predict conditional survival. Further validation studies should empirically assess the model for predictive performance.Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.