摩洛哥阿加迪尔市环境空气细颗粒短期和长期暴露造成的死亡率和发病率评估:AirQ 模型方法。
Mortality and morbidity assessment attributed to short- and long-term exposure to fine particles in ambient air of Agadir city, Morocco: The AirQ model approach.
发表日期:2023 Jun
作者:
Youssef Bouchriti, Amal Korrida, Mohamed Ait Haddou, Abderrahmane Achbani, Hasnaa Sine, Jamila Rida, Hayat Sine, Rachid Amiha, Belkacem Kabbachi
来源:
Cell Death & Disease
摘要:
众所周知,呼吸道疾病死亡率和发病率与高浓度细颗粒物(例如 PM2.5)有关。本研究的目的是使用 AirQ 2.1.1 软件评估 PM2.5 对摩洛哥阿加迪尔人口的长期和短期影响。 PM2.5 平均值是从三个地点收集的数据获得的。基线发病率数据从文献中获得,相对风险(RR)值参考自世界卫生组织。本研究量化了长期总死亡率 (LT-TM)、肺癌死亡率 (LT-LC)、急性下呼吸道感染发病率 (LT-ALRI) 和慢性阻塞性肺疾病 (LT-COPD) 发病率,如以及短期总死亡率(ST-TM)。 LT-TM 和 LT-LC 的归因比例(AP)估计分别为 14.19% 和 18.42%。他们的超额死亡人数估计分别为 279 人和 11 人,RR 分别为 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.22) 和 1.23 (95% CI: 1.12-1.37)。此外,LT-ALRI 和 LT-COPD 的 AP 估计分别为 14.36% 和 15.68%,超额死亡人数分别为 33 人和 4 人,RR 分别为 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.31) 和 1.19 (95% CI:1.00-1.02)。相比之下,ST-TM 的 AP 估计为 1.27%,超额死亡率为 25 人。这项研究的目的是为决策提供信息并促进地方环境空气质量政策。
It is well established that respiratory mortality and morbidity are associated with high concentrations of fine particles such as PM2.5. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long- and short-term impacts of PM2.5 on the population of Agadir, Morocco, using AirQ 2.1.1 software. The mean PM2.5 values were obtained from data collected at three sites. Baseline incidence data were obtained from the literature, and relative risk (RR) values were referenced from the World Health Organization. This study quantified long-term total mortality (LT-TM), lung cancer mortality (LT-LC), morbidity from acute lower respiratory tract infections (LT-ALRI), and morbidity from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (LT-COPD), as well as short-term total mortality (ST-TM). The attributable proportions (AP) of LT-TM and LT-LC were estimated to 14.19% and 18.42%, respectively. Their excess deaths were estimated to 279 and 11 persons, respectively, and their RRs to 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.22) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.12-1.37), respectively. Furthermore, the AP of LT-ALRI and LT-COPD were estimated to 14.36% and 15.68%, respectively, their excess deaths to 33 and 4, and their RRs to 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.31) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00-1.02), respectively. In comparison, the AP of ST-TM was estimated to 1.27%, with a 25-person excess death rate. This study was conducted to inform decision-making and to promote local policies on ambient air quality.