描述和分析广州市甲状腺癌发病和死亡的变化趋势，探讨其潜在影响因素，为政府制定防治措施提供依据。从广州市肿瘤登记处检索甲状腺癌发病和死亡病例。连接点回归模型用于估计发病率和死亡率趋势。年龄-周期-队列模型用于估计年龄、周期和队列对时间趋势的影响。采用灰色关联分析探讨甲状腺癌与社会因素之间可能的联系。2004-2018年广州市共登记甲状腺癌新发病例15955例，甲状腺癌年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从4.29/从2004年的105上升到2018年的22.36/105，年平均百分比变化（AAPC）为13.40%。总体增加可归因于甲状腺乳头状癌（PTC）发病率的增加，其中以<2cm的肿瘤为主。女性ASIR（16.12/105）高于男性（5.46/105），且青壮年发病率高于老年人。 2010年至2018年登记的甲状腺癌死亡人数为356人，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）稳定（约为0.42/105）。男性的 ASMR (0.34/105) 和女性 (0.49/105) 相似，60 岁及以上的死亡率更高。期间和队列相对风险总体呈上升趋势。此外，ASIR与社会决定因素之间存在较强的正相关关系。研究期间，广州市中青年人甲状腺癌发病率呈快速上升趋势，死亡率相对稳定。未来，应针对该年龄段采取更有效的预防措施，以减轻疾病负担，避免过度诊断。© 2023。作者获得 Springer Science Business Media, LLC（Springer Nature 旗下公司）的独家许可。

Describe and analyze the trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, explore the potential influencing factors, and provide evidence for the government to formulate prevention and treatment measures.Incident and death cases of thyroid cancer were retrieved from the Guangzhou cancer registry. The joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects on the time trends. Grey correlation analysis was performed to explore possible connections between thyroid cancer and social factors.A total of 15,955 new cases of thyroid cancer were registered in Guangzhou during 2004-2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 4.29/105 in 2004 to 22.36/105 in 2018, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 13.40%. The overall increase can be attributed to the increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), which was dominated by tumors <2 cm. The ASIR was higher in women (16.12/105) compared to men (5.46/105), and young and middle-aged individuals had higher incidence rates than older people. The number of thyroid cancer deaths registered between 2010 and 2018 was 356, and the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were stable (approximately 0.42/105). Men's ASMR (0.34/105) and women's (0.49/105) were similar, and those 60 and older had greater mortality. The period and cohort relative risks showed an overall increasing trend. Furthermore, there was a strong positive correlation between the ASIRs and social determinants.During the study period, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer among young and middle-aged people in Guangzhou showed a rapidly increasing trend, and the mortality was relatively stable. In the future, more effective preventive measures should be taken for this age group to reduce the burden of disease and avoid overdiagnosis.© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.