血浆致动脉粥样硬化指数（AIP）已被证明与心血管事件呈正相关。然而，目前尚不清楚长期高 AIP 水平的高血压患者患心力衰竭 (HF) 的风险是否更大。因此，本研究的目的是探讨高血压患者 AIP 轨迹与心力衰竭发生率之间的关系。这项前瞻性研究纳入了开滦研究中的 22,201 名高血压患者，他们在 2006 年至 2010 年间接受了三轮调查。 2010 年之前或期间心衰或癌症。AIP 计算为甘油三酯与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇的对数转换比。采用潜在混合模型来识别 AIP 在暴露期间（2006-2010 年）的不同轨迹模式。然后使用 Cox 比例风险模型来估计不同轨迹组中发生 HF 的风险比 (HR) 和 95% 置信区间 (CI)。通过潜在混合模型分析确定了四种不同的轨迹模式： 低稳定组 (n = 3,373；范围，-0.82至-0.70），中低稳定组（n = 12,700；范围，-0.12至-0.09），中高稳定组（n = 5,313；范围，0.53至0.58）和升高-增加组（n = 815；范围，1.22 至 1.56）。在 9.98 年的中位随访期内，共有 822 名高血压参与者出现心力衰竭。调整潜在混杂因素后，与低稳定组相比，升高增加组、中高稳定组和中低稳定组发生心力衰竭的 HR 和相应 CI 估计为 1.79（分别为 1.21、2.66)、1.49 (1.17、1.91) 和 1.27 (1.02、1.58)。这些结果在亚组分析和敏感性分析中保持一致。高血压患者 AIP 长期升高与心力衰竭风险增加显着相关。这一发现表明，定期监测 AIP 有助于识别高血压人群中心力衰竭风险较高的个体。© 2024。作者。

The atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been shown to be positively correlated with cardiovascular events. However, it remains unclear whether hypertensive patients with long-term high AIP levels are at greater risk of developing heart failure (HF). Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between AIP trajectory and the incidence of HF in hypertensive patients.This prospective study included 22,201 hypertensive patients from the Kailuan Study who underwent three waves of surveys between 2006 and 2010. Participants were free of HF or cancer before or during 2010. The AIP was calculated as the logarithmic conversion ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Latent mixed modeling was employed to identify different trajectory patterns for AIP during the exposure period (2006-2010). Cox proportional hazard models were then used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident HF among different trajectory groups.Four distinct trajectory patterns were identified through latent mixture modeling analysis: low-stable group (n = 3,373; range, -0.82 to -0.70), moderate-low stable group (n = 12,700; range, -0.12 to -0.09), moderate-high stable group (n = 5,313; range, 0.53 to 0.58), and elevated-increasing group (n = 815; range, 1.22 to 1.56). During a median follow-up period of 9.98 years, a total of 822 hypertensive participants experienced HF. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, compared with those in the low-stable group, the HR and corresponding CI for incident HF in the elevated-increasing group, moderate-high stable group, and moderate-low stable group were estimated to be 1.79 (1.21,2.66), 1.49 (1.17,1.91), and 1.27 (1.02,1.58), respectively. These findings remained consistent across subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses.Prolonged elevation of AIP in hypertensive patients is significantly associated with an increased risk of HF. This finding suggests that regular monitoring of AIP could aid in identifying individuals at a heightened risk of HF within the hypertensive population.© 2024. The Author(s).