高甘油三酯葡萄糖指数 (TyG) 与较高的心力衰竭风险相关。然而，TyG 指数的纵向模式对心力衰竭风险的影响仍有待表征。因此，在本研究中，我们旨在表征TyG指数轨迹与心力衰竭风险之间的关系。我们对开滦研究中的56,149名参与者进行了一项前瞻性研究，这些参与者在2006-2007年、2008-2008年连续参加了三项调查。 2009 年和 2010-2011 年，并且在第三波调查（2010-2011 年）之前没有心力衰竭或癌症病史。 TyG指数的计算公式为ln[空腹甘油三酯（mg/dL）×空腹血糖（mg/dL）/2]，我们使用潜在混合模型来表征2006-2010年期间TyG指数的轨迹。此外，Cox 比例风险模型用于计算各种 TyG 指数轨迹组发生心力衰竭的风险比 (HR) 和 95% 置信区间 (CI)。从 2006 年到 2010 年，确定了四种不同的 TyG 轨迹：稳定（n = 13,554；范围，7.98-8.07）、中等低稳定（n = 29,435；范围，8.60-8.65）、中高稳定（n = 11,262；范围，9.31-9.30）和升高-稳定（n = 11,262；范围，9.31-9.30） n = 1,898；范围，10.04-10.25）。在中位随访期 10.04 年期间，总共发生了 1,312 起新的心力衰竭事件。调整潜在混杂因素后，升高稳定组、中高稳定组和中低稳定组发生心力衰竭的风险比 (HR) 和 95% 置信区间 (CI) 分别为 1.55 (1.15, 2.08)、1.32与低稳定组相比，分别为 (1.08, 1.60) 和 1.17 (0.99, 1.37)。较高的 TyG 指数轨迹与较高的心力衰竭风险相关。这表明监测 TyG 指数轨迹可能有助于识别心力衰竭高风险个体，并强调早期控制血糖和血脂对于预防心力衰竭的重要性。© 2024。作者。

A high triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) is associated with a higher risk of incident heart failure. However, the effects of longitudinal patterns of TyG index on the risk of heart failure remain to be characterized. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to characterize the relationship between the trajectory of TyG index and the risk of heart failure.We performed a prospective study of 56,149 participants in the Kailuan study who attended three consecutive surveys in 2006-2007, 2008-2009, and 2010-2011 and had no history of heart failure or cancer before the third wave survey (2010-2011). The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2], and we used latent mixture modeling to characterize the trajectory of the TyG index over the period 2006-2010. Additionally, Cox proportional risk models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident heart failure for the various TyG index trajectory groups.From 2006 to 2010, four different TyG trajectories were identified: low-stable (n = 13,554; range, 7.98-8.07), moderate low-stable (n = 29,435; range, 8.60-8.65), moderate high-stable (n = 11,262; range, 9.31-9.30), and elevated-stable (n = 1,898; range, 10.04-10.25). A total of 1,312 new heart failure events occurred during a median follow-up period of 10.04 years. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident heart failure for the elevated-stable, moderate high-stable, and moderate low-stable groups were 1.55 (1.15, 2.08), 1.32 (1.08, 1.60), and 1.17 (0.99, 1.37), respectively, compared to the low-stable group.Higher TyG index trajectories were associated with a higher risk of heart failure. This suggests that monitoring TyG index trajectory may help identify individuals at high risk for heart failure and highlights the importance of early control of blood glucose and lipids for the prevention of heart failure.© 2024. The Author(s).