康复作为卫生服务的重要组成部分，对于提高全民健康水平和生活质量具有重要意义。老龄化速度的加快要求中国大力扩大康复服务，但康复需求仍不清楚。我们进行这项研究的目的是探讨中国的康复需求，并预测2020年至2034年康复需求的趋势。可能受益于康复的健康状况数据来自全球疾病负担（GBD）研究。计算估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）以量化年龄标准化率的趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄阶段队列分析 (BAPC) 对 2034 年之前的康复需求进行了预测。中国约有 4.6 亿人（占总人口的 33.3%）需要康复，2019 年残疾寿命 (YLD) 达到 6300 万流行病例数从 1990 年的约 268（95% 不确定区间 [UI]：257-282）万例增加到 2019 年的近 460（95% UI：443-479）万例，增长了 71.3%。对康复需求贡献最大的是肌肉骨骼疾病，约有 322 万人（95% UI：302-343）百万人患有七个疾病和损伤类别，听力损失则超过 95 万人（95% UI：84-107）万人25 种健康状况。根据预测结果，到2034年，中国将有近6.36亿人（占总人口的45%）需要康复服务，增长38.3%。预计2019年至2034年，肿瘤、心血管疾病和神经系统疾病的康复需求将大幅增长，增幅分别为102.3%、88.8%和73.2%。过去30年，中国的康复需求大幅增长。预计到 2034 年，超过五分之二的人将需要康复，因此需要开发满足个人康复需求的康复服务。版权所有 © 2024 中华医学会，由 Wolters Kluwer, Inc. 制作，CC-BY -NC-ND 许可证。

As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034.The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC).Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively.The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.Copyright © 2024 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.